Seals Will Run For Mark Kirk's Seat ... Again

Dan Seals apparently thinks the third time is the charm, and will run again for IL-10. State Sen. Michael Bond has also announced, and there will likely be other Dem entrants into the race for the seat that will be vacated by Mark Kirk.

The assumption was that this race would be a free-for-all, as the wealthy north Chicago district is quite a prize. The Tribune, however, dropped this little nugget:

There is one factor to consider for the future of the district. Some lawmakers privately suggest that the lifespan of the 10th District may not be long with redistricting coming up after the 2010 federal census. Carving up the 10th to feed Democrats into the 8th District held by Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean and the 9th District held by Democratic Rep. Janice Schakowsky may leave little left over as the state faces the loss of another congressional seat.

We'll see how this news impacts entries into the race and fundraising. On the bright side, the potential redistricting would convert the 8th from a battleground district to a strong Democratic one, perhaps allowing progressive Dems to primary Bean.

Rep. Davis (IL-07) To Run For Cook County Board President

Rep. Danny Davis (IL-07) is officially running for president of the Cook County Board. This leaves IL-07 as a wide-open race, at least in the Democratic primary.

Potential black candidates include state Representatives Karen Yarbrough and LaShawn Ford; state Sen. Rickey Hendon and Deputy Recorder of Deeds Darlena Williams-Burnett.

Potential white candidates being mentioned are 2nd Ward Ald. Bob Fioretti and state Sen. Don Harmon. Harmon, for one, says he’s not running, arguing, “We should not be trying to erode the representation of the African-American community.”

It's hard to imagine a scenario where the Dems lose this seat, which has one of the highest Partisan Voting Indexes in the country at +35. The Sun-Times does, however, note that race and changing demographics could make the primary interesting.

Giannoulius' Dilemma: How To Approach Kirk?

Mark Kirk official entered the 2010 Senate race today, and prospective Democratic opponent Alexi Giannoulias wasted no time in painting Kirk as a George Bush Republican:"If Mark Kirk and I are the respective nominees of our parties, then voters will have a clear choice: go backwards to the reckless Bush-Cheney fiscal policies Kirk supported that cost this state hundreds of thousands of jobs and created the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, or move forward to fundamentally change our economy and create the next generation of good jobs here in Illinois.

"I believe in fair trade, an honest day's pay for an honest day's work, and tax cuts for middle-class families. Mark Kirk takes the opposite view. He voted to give tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas, but against cracking down on China's unfair trade practices. He voted for a massive bailout of the biggest banks in the country, but against raising the minimum wage. Mark Kirk voted against middle-class tax cuts by opposing President Obama's economic recovery plan, but supported George W. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest. It's a simple choice between the failed past or a promising future - a clear choice between the right course and the wrong one."

Giannoulias is actually in a tough position here. Kirk hasn't exactly endeared himself to Illinois' Republican power brokers with his wishy-washy entry into the race and recent vote on cap and trade, not to mention his moderate stands on guns and abortion. Painting Kirk as a hard-right Republican might actually help him to consolidate party support.

Giannoulis is forced to choose between killing his likely challenger in his crib or letting him self-destruct. The bland, unmemorable statement above may be the happy medium.

State Republicans Angry With Kirk Over Cap-And-Trade

Human Events notes some of the fallout from Rep. Mark Kirk's vote in favor of cap-and-trade, which angered Illinois Republicans:

Even liberal Republican Rep. Judy Bigert (R.-Ill.), who shares Kirk’s non-conservative social issues, was reportedly angry with her colleague for a vote in favor of what she said would lead to a “war on the middle class,” according to my Illinois GOP source.

...

On Thursday (July 9th), amid mounting rumors that the 71-year-old Burris would soon announce his retirement, the Illinois GOP Members and McKenna held a closed-door meeting at the offices of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). According to one account, “It was obvious a lot had changed from the past six months, when Kirk was being cheered on to run. Most of his colleagues now made it clear to him that they would not guarantee him the nomination in the primary [in March of next year] or support him in a contested primary.”

After a bit of back-and-forth, McKenna -- the chair of the IL Republican party -- has agreed to clear the field for Kirk. Still, it will be interesting to see if this spat affects Kirk's fundraising over the next quarter. Kirk also has strayed from the Republican orthodoxy on abortion and guns, so it's worth keeping an eye on how he votes over the next few months.

Roundup (Sun-Times): Senate Fundraising, Burris

• The Sun-Times' Michael Sneed reports that Sen. Burris' decision to skip the 2010 Senate race was due to a combination of poor fundraising and $500-700K in debt incurred as a result of the ethics carnival. Top Dems apparently agreed to help bail him out, contingent on him staying out of the race.
• '10 Senate Fundraising Update: Alexi Giannoulias reported a strong fundraising quarter, bringing his cash on hand to $1.68M. Republican Mark Kirk has around $1M. Archpundit has a roundup of potentially competitive races.
• Kirk will officially announce his Senate bid on Monday.